IBISIGISIGI BYA 2015 KW’ITERAMBERE RY’ UBUKUNGU BW’AFRIKA MU 2016

Nyuma y’ukwezi kumwe umwaka wa 2016 utangiye ibisigisigi bya 2015 birakigaragaza k’ubukungu bw’Afrika. 2015 n’umwaka wakomereye ubukungu bw’Afrika biturutse kwitakaza ry’agaciro kuri menshi mu mafaramga akoreshwa mubihugu bitandukanye, ukwiyongera kw’ibiciro ku masoko, kugabanyuka kwibwoherezwa mu mahanga n’ibihugu bya Afrika, kugabanuka kw’ibiciro bya Peteroli byashegeshe abayicukura nka Nigeria na Angola, kwiyongera kw’imyenda y’ibihugu by’Afrika kujyeza kujyeza kw’ibura ry’imvura mu burasirazuba no mu majyepfo y’Afrika.

Nkuko tubikesha icyegeranyo cyakozwe n’umunyamakuru wa BBC Mathew Davies,” Africa Business Report”; Byinshi muri ibi bibazo ubukungu bw’Afrika bwahuye nabyo mu 2015 bishobora gukomeza gutera ikibazo mur’uyu mwaka wa 2016. Ariko abasesenguzi b’ubukungu ba  Global Economic Prospects bagateganyako ubukungu bw’Afrika yo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara bushobora kwiyongeraho 4.2% muruyu mwaka buvuye kuri 3.4% mu 2015.

Zino ni zimwe mumbogamizi n’amahirwe bishobora kuzagira kinini bivuze  k’ubukungu bw’Afrika mu 2016.

5. IBICURUZWA N’IBICIRO

Mu mwaka 2015, ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa bikomoka kumugabane w’Afrika kw’isoko mpuzamahanga  byaraguye cyane.

Nko muri Zambia aho Umuringa(Cuivre) aricyo gicuruzwa bohereza hanze cyane, igiciro cyayo cyageze munsi ya kimwe cya kabiri cy’igiciro bayicuruZagaho mu mwaka itatau ishize. Ibi byatumwe amwe bimwe mubigo bicukura(Mining Companies) bigabanya abakozi n’umusaruro byatangaga. Ibi byaviriyemo kuba I Kwacha rikomeje gutakaza agaciro no kwiyongera kw’ibiciro ku masoko yo mugihugu rwagati.

Ibindi bihugu nka Nigeria,Angola…byacungiraga kwicukurwa rya Peteroli byisanga mugatebo kamwe na Zambia bitewe nimanuka ry’ibiciro bya Peteroli bikomeje kumanuka umusubirizo. Ibi  kandi bikurikira ibiciro bitiyongera bya Kawa n’Icyayi ndetse n’ibikomoka kubuhinzi byo muri Afrika bidahabwa agaciro ku Isoko mpuzamahanga cyangwa bigakunirwa nabimwe mubihugu byo mu Burayi na Amerika kubera ubuziranenge nogukingira inyungu z’abahinzi babyo.

Imbonerahamwe y'ubwiyongere bwibikorerwa muri Afrika(GDP) hajyendewe kubyo umuturage yingiza PPP

Nubwo aruko bimeze ntakizere cyuko hari kinini kizahinduka muri rusange; keretse nkingamba za bimwe mu bihugu mukuzahura ubukungu bwabyo ariko zidashobora kujyira icyo bihindura k’umugabane wose.

4. UBUSHINWA

Mu mwaka wa 2015 no muyayibanjirije ubukungu bw’Afrika bwagiye burambiriza ku masoko yo mubushinwa, haba mugutumiza ibicuruzwa no kubwohereza ndetse no mugushora imari kw’ibigo by’abashinwa muri Afrika. Mugihe ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa mwahuye n’idindira mu 2015; biri mubyateye igabanuka ry’ibiciro n’ingano yibyo ibihugu bya Afrika byohereza hanze.

Amabuye yagaciro ava muri Afrika yaragabanutse cyane n’ibiciro byayo bigabanuka kuburyo bukabije; ibi kandi byateye igabanuka ry’Amafaranga ibihugu byinjiza avuye mu misoro no kubura akazi kwabenshi. Mugihe ibintu byaba bikomeje gutya, twakwitegurako Guverinoma z’ibihugu by’Afrika zigabanya amafaranga zikoresha cyangwa zikongera imisoro, cyangwa byose. Bityo ibihugu by’Afrika bigomba kuba maso no gushyiraho ingamba zihamye; doreko ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa bwakomeje kugabanuka cyane muntangiriro za 2016, hato ibibazo bw’Ubushinwa bitaba nibya Afrika.

3.AGACIRO K’AMAFARANGA AKORESHWA MURI AFRIKA

Kuva Cape Town muri Africa Yepfo kugeza I Cairo mu Misiri, no kuva I Dakar muri Senegal kugeza I Mombasa muri Tanzania; amafaranga nyafurika yataye agaciro hafi muri buri gihugu mu 2015 kandi nubu bikaba bikomeje.

Abaturage ba Zambia mu masengesho yo gusabira i Kwacha n'ubukungu muri rusange

Muri Zambia bagezeho bafata icyemezo cyo gushyiraho umunsi w’ikiruhuko; Kuwa 18 Ukwakira 2015, mu gihugu hose ugenewe gusengera I Kwacharya Zambia ryamanukaga umusubirizo.

Ukuguta agaciro kaje kuba agahebuzo nyuma yaho ikigo gikuru kimari ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Amerika, US Federal Reserve yongeraga urwunguko kw’idolari ry’Amerika. Ibibyagize ingaruka cyane kw’I Rand rya Afrika Yepfo, bikubitiyeho nihindurwa ryaba Ministri bashinzwe imari inshuro ebyiri zose mukwezi kumwe ku Kuboza mu 2015.

Naho ingamba zashyizweho na Banki Nkuru ya Nigeria yo kugenzura iyinjizwa mugihugu ry’amafaranga y’amanyamahanga zigaragara nkizitazagira icyo zigeraho mugihe ibiciro bya Peteeroli byaba bikomeje kumanuka muri uy'umwaka wa 2016. Naho mugenzi wayo ucukura Peteroli,Angola, ifite nayo ibyo bibazo byogutakaza agaciro ki Kwanza rya Angola.

Muri uyumwaka Amabanki Makuru y’ibihugu Agomba guhangana nuburyo bwo kongera agaciro kinyungu zitangwa kunguzanyo no gushyigikira ubwiyongere bw’ubukungu uko zishoboye kose.

2. IMYENDA YAZA LETA ZO MURI AFRIKA

Ikibazo kimyenda kuri Guverinoma z’Afrika bisa n’intare isinziriye cyangwa ikirunga kenda kuruka umunota k’umunota. Inkomoka yibi ningaruka zituruka kubikorwa byaza Guverinoma mumyaka ishize byo gutanga impapuro mpeshamwenda(Eurobonds) mu mafaranga y’amanyamahanga (Amadolari,Amayero,…).

Nigeria, Zambia, Kenya, n’ibindi birimo u Rwanda byinjiye muri irisoko murwego rwo kubona amafaranga yogukoresha mubikorwa bya Leta. Ibibyatumye ingano y’imyenda ibihugu bifite wiyongera bidasabyeko igihugu kiguza ikindi cyangwa ikigo k’imari runaka.

Iyishyurwa ry’urwunguko kuri ayo mafaranga riteganyijwe muri uyu mwaka kuri byinshi muri ibibihugu kandi zizishyurwa mu madolari y’Amerika(US Dollars). Bitewe no guta agaciro kw’amafaranga akoreshwa muri byinshi mubihugu by’Afrika; ibihugu bizagomba kwishyura amafaranga menshi arenze ayo zari zarateganyije.

Abashoramari nabo batangiye kugira ubwoba ko Leta zishobora kubura uburyo bwo kubishyura; byatumye inyungu k’unguzanyo (Interest rate) y’impapuro mpeshamyenda ziyongera cyane. Urugero twatanga ni urwa Zambia aho mubi 2012 yazitangaga kunyungu ya 5.4%; bitewe n’igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’umuringa Zambia igurisha hanze, itakaza ry’agaciro ki Kwacha n’ibindi bibazo by’ubukungu; abashoramari batangiye kubonako kuguriza Zambia muri 2015 bishobora kubamo igihombo(Risks) kurusha mu 2012. Bityo biviramo Zambia kongera inyungu k’unguzanyo izishyira abayiguriza iva kuri 5.4% igera 8.5% murwego rwogukurura abashoramari.

1. IBURA RY’IMVURA N’IBIRIBWA

Iki gishobora kuba aricyo kibazo kizahungabanya ubukungu bw’Afrika kurusha ibindi muri uyumwaka, nimba ntagihindutse kubyatangajwe n’iteganya gihe, cyane cyane m’Uburasirazuba n’Amajyepfo y”Afrika.

Mu mibare(Statistics) bigaragarako  bibiri bya gatatu  by’ubutaka buhingwa kw’Isi yose buherereye muri Afrika; nanone kandi bibiri bya gatatu by’abakozi muri afrika ni abahinzi. Nkuko Banki y’Isi yabitangaje, 32% by’imari yingizwa n’ibikorerwa imbere muri Afrika (Africa's GDP) bikomoka k’Ubuhinzi.

Ibura ry'imvura n'ubtayu biterwa n'imiyaga ya El Nino 

Ibihe by’ikirere bikomoka k’umuyaga wa EL NINO birigutera ukwiyongera k’ubushyuhe no kubura kw’imvura muri utwo duce twazuze haruguru. Aho igihe cyo guhinga mu mwak kiri kugenda kiba gito,aho imvura nke igwa mbere yigihe kimenyerewe cyo guhinga igakurikirwa no kwiyongera k’ubushyuhe n’izuba ryinshi.

Umuryango w’Abibumbye uravugako miliyoni 29 z’abaurage mu majyepfo y’Afrika badafite ibyokurya bihagije naho m’Uburasirazuba miliyoni 10 bakaba bazakenera inkungay’ibiribwa muri uyumwaka. Umusaruro w’ubuhinzi mu 2016, ushobora kuzagabanuka cyane ugereranyije nuwo mumyaka ishize, bityo Leta zo muri Afrika zigomba guteganya amafaranga yo kugura ibiribwa hanze ya Afrika.

AMIZERO Y’UBUKUNGU BW’AFRIKA MURI 2016

Nubwo 2015 itoroheye ubukungu bw’umugabane w”afrika; ibimenyetso byerekana ko 2016 izaba ikomeye kurushaho. Ariko siko ibintu bigenda nabi kuri bose, kandi baravuga ngo ntajoro ridacya; bityo rero hari amaizero kuri bimwe mubihugu by’Afrika.

Imbonerahamwe y'ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro w'ibuhugu by'Afrika(GDP) buteganywa muri 2016 ujyereranyije na 2015

Buri wese wohereza ibintu kw’isoko mpuzamahanga ibintu byakorewe muri Afrika azagira inyungu nini kubera ukwiyongera kw’agaciro k’idolari ry’Amerika.Ibi bivuzeko mugihe amafaranga y’imbere muri Afrika ahenshi agaciro kaguye, gucuruza mu madolari bivuzeko wayavunjisha muyimbere mugihugu ukabona amafaranga menshi yo kugura ibikoresho, kw’ishyura abakozi n’ibindi mugihe biboneka mugihugu utuyemo.

Muri Politike, abayobozi bashya bagiye kubutegetsi; ibi bisobanuyeko hari ingamba shya bazazana muguteza imbere ubukungu bw’ibihugu byabo. Muriabao twavugamo nka Perezida Muhammudu Buhari wa Nigeriya, John Magufuli wa Tanzania na Macky Sall wa Senegal. Intego zabo zo kugabanya isesagura ry’umutungo wa Leta, zitanga ikizere, byumwihariko muri Nigeria.

Uruzinduko rw’umukuru w’Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari;IMF(International Monetary Fund), Christine Lagarde ;kuntangiriro z’umwaka ni ikimenyetso kiza ko nibize ibigo n’imiryangi mpuzamahanga bizi ikibazo kiri muri Afrika bikaba byanatanga ubufasha aho bukenewe kugihe.

Hari ikizere cy’uko ubukungu bw”ubushinwa bwazahuka, ibiciro n’ibikenerwa byoherezwa mumahanga bikiyongera.